IDC Expects PC Costs to Remain Elevated Through 2027

Market research firm IDC projects computer prices will stay high through the end of 2027, driven by supply constraints and escalating component costs. In the third quarter of 2026, worldwide PC shipments crashed 20.1% year over year as manufacturers focused on clearing excess channel inventory. Lenovo led the market despite shipping 14.9 million units for a 22.6% decline and holding a 23.8% market share. HP followed in second place with 10.3 million units shipped—a 30.9% drop—capturing a 16.5% market share. Dell placed third with 7.6 million units, down 25%, while Apple shipped 5.9 million units, experiencing an 11.3% decline.

To maintain revenue amid falling volumes, hardware makers are prioritizing higher-priced inventory and passing component expenses to buyers. HP chief financial officer Karen Parkhill noted during an August earnings call that memory and storage will claim a growing share of component bills, prompting HP to reprice products upward. As a result, low-cost options are scarce. Meanwhile, adoption of AI-enabled PCs is accelerating. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella recently noted that AI PCs accounted for 40% of all PC shipments, while HP reported that AI PCs comprised 46% of its shipments for the fiscal quarter ending July 31. HP has added its HP IQ local software and Wolf Security BIOS protection to these systems.

Despite the surge in AI hardware, IT leaders are reconsidering standard three-to-four-year hardware refresh cycles because most generative workload processing remains in the cloud. Jack Gold of J. Gold Associates observed that enterprise spending remains heavily focused on cloud services rather than desktop upgrades. In response, vendors are introducing advanced "agentic AI PCs" or "Builder PCs" equipped with dedicated GPUs to execute large language models locally and lower cloud token costs. However, premium systems like Microsoft's Surface Laptop Ultra and HP's ZBook Ultra G3a mobile workstation carry price tags exceeding $2,500.

For enterprise IT managers and AI practitioners, these price pressures alter ROI calculations. Technalysis Research analyst Bob O'Donnell questioned whether local execution truly reinvents the device category. Until localized processing offsets high initial hardware expenditures, enterprises will likely delay broad fleet upgrades, choosing to selectively deploy $2,500-plus local AI hardware only where reducing long-term token expenses justifies the upfront premium.