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  • The Pentagon’s DEI crackdown isn’t just deleting history — it also seems to slight veterans

    Jackie Robinson, in military uniform, signs a contract with a minor league club
    The Defense Department recently added the label “deisports” to an online tribute to Jackie Robinson before removing it and re-publishing the article. Many more instances of altered web addresses have been found.

    • The Pentagon removed Jackie Robinson’s military service story from its website, sparking outrage.
    • The deletion is part of a broader effort to eliminate DEI content from official online platforms.
    • The Defense Department defended the webpage removals, citing the “DEI” framing of the articles.

    An online article about baseball icon Jackie Robinson’s military service was taken down this week as part of the Defense Department’s DEI-dragnet altering and erasing military history.

    But it wasn’t just the Dodgers Hall of Famer who got swept up in the Pentagon’s widespread online DEI purge.

    Many of the web pages, including the tribute to Robinson, had the word “DEI” added to the website’s address, an alteration that many took as an official suggestion that these recognitions were largely or solely because of the person’s race or gender.

    This “DEI” labeling of years of old press releases and images, some dating from Trump’s first administration, extended to the recently fired chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, trailblazing women and racially segregated units like the Tuskegee Airmen, Business Insider found. This adds to the list of articles that have received this treatment, including the highest-ranking Black Medal of Honor recipient, whose web address was briefly changed to include “deimedal.”

    The Pentagon doubled down on its decision to remove the content, claiming the articles had “DEI” framing, some of which originally appeared during cultural commemorations like Black History Month. Some pages, like Robinson’s, were later restored after an uproar. The removals demonstrate the extent of the department’s commitment to complying with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s directive to eliminate materials and practices it deems to be DEI.

    The Defense Department declined to questions about why the DEI label was added to some web pages in addition to deleting its content or who had done so.

    ‘Digital content refresh’ on DEI

    US Army soldiers who were members of the 369th regiment known as the Harlem Hellfighters.
    US Army soldiers who were members of the 369th regiment known as the Harlem Hellfighters.

    In late February, Hegseth ordered a “digital content refresh across all DoD public platforms,” targeting material related to “critical race theory, gender ideology, and preferential treatment or quotas based upon sex, race or ethnicity, or other DEI-related matters,” per a memorandum of the mandate.

    In the weeks since the mandate was issued, error messages began to appear on webpages depicting diversity events at military bases and stories advocating for women, racial minorities, and LGBTQ+ troops.

    Though the March 5 deadline for the onerous online purge has long passed, content continues to be removed from military-run websites, including profiles of biographies highlighting historic military leaders and units that existed long before diversity was a recognized organizational initiative.

    Among the deletions was an article spotlighting Black soldiers throughout US history, from Revolutionary War spy James Armistead Lafayette to the legendary segregated World War I combat unit known as the Harlem Hellfighters, one of numerous alterations spotted by the news site Axios.

    Published during Black History Month in 2017, the article recognized the “brave soldiers who broke barriers, saved lives, and paved the way for today’s force.”

    The DEI labeling and deletions affected many other trailblazers and warfighters. An article about a Puerto Rican unit that served in World War II and Vietnam had one article’s address changed to read, “deiinfantryman.” The original DoD publicity arose from the regiment’s recognition decades later, in 2016, with the Congressional Gold Medal.

    Similarly, an article about retired Brig. Gen. Allison Hickey, an Air Force pilot who graduated in the first US Air Force Academy class with women, was labeled “dei” and its photos and text removed.

    Removing and reversing

    NAACP field secretary Medgar Evers was arrested while picketing outside a department store in Jackson, Mississippi.
    NAACP field secretary Medgar Evers was arrested while picketing outside a department store in Jackson, Mississippi.

    Alongside the now-restored story about Robinson’s service in the US Army during World War II, a profile about Army Maj. Gen. Charles C. Rogers, the highest-ranking Black servicemember to receive the Medal of Honor, was temporarily taken down.

    The story, part of a series honoring Medal of Honor recipients, largely focused on Rogers’ decorated military career in the Army. The article briefly mentioned how he championed sex and race equality during his time in the Army and his status as the highest-ranking Black Medal of Honor recipient to this day.

    The story returned to the Pentagon’s website following criticism of the removal last week. The Defense Department said in a statement that the story was taken down during an “auto removal process” but failed to detail why the article was targeted in the first place.

    Pentagon Press Secretary John Ullyot said in a statement that the department will correct the “rare cases that content is removed — either deliberately or by mistake — that is out of the clearly outlined scope of the directive.”

    “Now you’re hurting recruiting, and you’re also branding the greatest military in the world, the US military, a haven for white supremacists,” said Brandon Friedman, a former US Army combat veteran who spotted that Rogers’ Medal of Honor tribute had been labeled DEI. “Pulling Jackie Robinson off the website, have these people lost their minds?”

    Erasing history

    Iwo Jima
    US Marines raise an American flag on Mount Suribachi during the Battle of Iwo Jima.

    Other historical content remained noticeably absent from the Defense Department’s website.

    The DoD removed a story about the service of Marine Corps Pfc. Ira Hayes, a Pima Indian who “achieved immortal fame” as one of the six Marines in the iconic WWII photo raising the American flag atop Mount Suribachi on Iwo Jima, The Washington Post reported.

    The tribute was written in 2021 in honor of National Native American Heritage Month, which the article described as a time to “reflect on the contributions and sacrifices Native Americans have made to the United States, not just in the military but in all walks of life.”

    Articles about the Navajo Code Talkers, the famed US Marine unit who were instrumental in decoding secret messages during World War II, were also labeled under the “DEI” umbrella and have since disappeared from some military websites, Axios reported.

    An article about prominent Civil Rights activist Medgar Evers, a US Navy veteran, was also removed from the US Naval History and Heritage Command. However, another webpage about the active-duty US Navy dry cargo ship named after him remains online.

    When asked why Evers’ biography was taken down, an NHHC representative told Business Insider that the command was assessing and revising each page on its website per Hegseth’s DEI directive.

    A spokesperson for the Navy Office of Information was unable to provide answers to BI’s questions by Thursday morning about the criteria that resulted in the page’s removal.

    DoD defends deletions

    Members of the Navajo Code Talkers, the famed US Marine unit who delivered unbreakable codes during World War II, attend the annual Veterans Day parade in New York City.
    Members of the Navajo Code Talkers attend the annual Veterans Day parade in New York City.

    Despite the swift backlash for the online takedowns, the Defense Department defended the decision to remove the content due to its “DEI” framing.

    “Everyone at the Defense Department loves Jackie Robinson, as well as the Navajo Code Talkers, the Tuskegee airmen, the Marine at Iwo Jima, and so many others — we salute them for their strong and, in many cases, heroic service to our education, full stop,” Ullyot said.

    He added: “We do not view or highlight them through the prism of immutable characteristics, such as race, ethnicity, or sex.”

    Nonetheless, wholly deleting the content from the Pentagon’s site appears to undermine the department’s stated goal of “recognizing their patriotism and dedication to the warfighting mission like every other American who has worn the uniform,” as Ullyot said in the statement.

    Transparency

    US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr. attends a ceremony on the South Lawn of the White House.
    President Trump abruptly fired US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr. on Feb. 21.

    Some have speculated that DoD could have used an algorithm to review thousands of old articles, images, and public records for DEI-related keywords. The DoD did not say how it chose to delete these articles and alter their web addresses; the full number of altered addresses remains unknown.

    The DEI label was also applied to the combat veteran President Donald Trump recently fired: Gen. CQ Brown, who had been the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. A web article about his trailblazing career was deleted, and the URL was altered to read “deiblack-history-month.”

    Despite Hegseth’s vision to create “the most transparent Department of Defense in history,” it remains unclear what guidelines DoD officials are following when flagging online content as DEI-related — both internally and externally.

    “I guess I’ll just stop taking photos of and sharing the stories of women and Black soldiers,” an Army public affairs official told Military.com in late February. “Not sure how else to interpret this.”

    Staff writer Kelsey Baker contributed to this report.

    Read the original article on Business Insider
  • Ukraine struck a key Russian air base used for Tu-95 and Tu-160 bomber attacks

    A massive plume of smoke against an orange sky over Russia's Engels -2 air base in the Saratov region during an overnight Ukrainian attack that began on 19 March, 2025.
    Smoke rising from the area around the Engels-2 airbase following a Ukrainian drone attack.

    • Ukraine said it hit Russia’s Engels-2 air base, causing fires and explosions.
    • Engels-2 is a key Russian base used for launching bomber attacks on Ukraine.
    • While Ukraine attacked the military base, Russia bombed a Ukrainian city overnight.

    Ukraine claimed responsibility for a major attack that set a blaze at a key Russian air base overnight on Wednesday.

    The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said Thursday that its special forces had caused the detonation of an ammunition store at the Engels-2 air base in Russia’s Saratova region, resulting in fires and explosions.

    Engels-2, which sits about 450 miles from unoccupied Ukraine, is a key air base from which Russia has launched devastating attacks on Ukraine using its fleet of Tu-95 and Tu-160 bomber aircraft.

    It’s unclear if any planes were damaged in the attack.

    Russian bombers on a flight line at a base covered in snow.
    A Tu-95 strategic bomber at Engels air base.

    Ukraine’s General Staff didn’t say what weapons were used, but the region’s governor, Roman Busargin, said that Russian forces had shot down 54 drones.

    He called it the largest attack on the area since 2022. Russian authorities do not generally report on strikes.

    Busargin said in a Telegram post Thursday that a state of emergency had been declared, and that civilians had been evacuated from areas around the base.

    Russian opposition media channel Astra shared images and video of a massive plume of smoke and reported multiple explosions.

    The blasts knocked windows out of two kindergartens, a school, and a local hospital, injuring one woman, Busargin said.

    Business Insider could not independently verify the reports.

    Ukraine’s attack on the base came amid a wider barrage, with Russia’s Ministry of Defence claiming to have shot down 134 drones overnight across six regions.

    It was also the third attack on Engels-2 this year.

    In January, Ukraine’s 14th Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Regiment claimed responsibility for what it described at the time as its largest-ever attack on a Russian military facility, targeting an oil storage facility supplying fuel for the planes.

    The base has taken extensive measures to try to protect the aircraft, including piling tires onto them in an apparent attempt to fool Ukrainian missiles.

    In 2023, Russia relocated some of its bombers farther east, to avoid Ukrainian attacks.

    Police tape cordons off a catastrophically damaged apartment building in Kropyvnytskyi, Kirovohrad Oblast, in Ukraine after an overnight Russian attack on March 19, 2025.
    A damaged apartment building in Kropyvnytskyi, after the overnight Russian attack.

    Ukraine’s General Staff said Thursday that it used detailed planning to avoid civilian casualties.

    Russia also sent more than 200 attack drones and other missiles against central Ukraine overnight Wednesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Telegram.

    More than 30 explosions were heard in Kropyvnytskyi, a city in Kirovohrad Oblast, the regional governor told broadcaster Suspilne.

    Police said that 10 people were injured in the attacks.

    Read the original article on Business Insider
  • The UK and France’s new AI drone could revolutionize the dangerous work of clearing naval mines

    A small drone-hunting vessel marked "Thales" on the water.
    France and the UK have taken delivery of Thales’ fully autonomous naval mine-hunting system.

    • The UK and France have taken delivery of an AI-driven naval mine-hunting system.
    • The MMCM uses autonomous systems for mine detection, removing the need for crewed ships.
    • Naval mines create complex threats, making autonomous systems advantageous.

    The UK and France have taken delivery of an AI-powered system that uses drone boats to target naval mines, which represent one of the most complex security problems facing shipping and maritime trade.

    French defense company Thales announced the delivery of the first of four Maritime Mine Counter Measures systems to France in February, and another to the UK — also the first of four — on Friday.

    Thales said MMCM’s modular system allows for the detection and neutralization of naval mines without the need to send sailors into danger on crewed ships.

    The two countries paid a combined $468 million for the system.

    An expensive problem

    Laying naval mines is a relatively inexpensive act that can have hugely expensive consequences on world trade.

    Mines laid as part of the Russia-Ukraine war have become a worrying problem for shipping lanes in the Black Sea.

    While landmines tend to stay in one place, naval mines can sit at any depth and can become unmoored and begin to drift, making them particularly dangerous.

    The problem is so intractable that the term “demining” doesn’t even apply — the term at sea is “mine countermeasures.”

    A plume of water and some debris shoot out of the Black Sea off the coast of Burgas, Bulgaria, on July 22 2022 during military mine countermeasures exercise Sea Breeze.
    A naval mine explodes during a military exercise in 2022 near Burgas, Bulgaria.

    Matthew Morrison, Mine Countermeasures Delivery Director for Thales in the UK, told BI that “the transportation of the food and the energy sources for our homes — is under threat more than any time since WWII.”

    Remote vehicles and drones are already used in naval mine countermeasures operations, but generally in combination with conventional crewed ships. Thales says its AI-powered, autonomous system can streamline the process.

    To map the area and locate mines, an advanced sonar is towed along the water by a 39-ft surface drone that can be controlled via the system’s portable operations center, either on land or at sea up to 14 miles away.

    Once a mine has been detected, a remotely operated vehicle, or ROV, can be sent to neutralize it, under the control of personnel at the operations center.

    “These vessels are fitted with AI automatic target detection and recognition,” which significantly speeds up the process, Morrison said.

    “The quantity of data operators have to process would swamp a human,” he added.

    An aerial view of Turkish Nav's minesweeper ship belonging to Turkish Navy Mine Squadron Command in 2022. An auxiliary boat and its circular trail in the water around the ship is also visible.
    Thales says the system removes the need for crewed ships, such as this Turkish Navy minesweeper, to enter dangerous waters.

    The UK’s Royal Navy reported a successful trial of the system’s drone prototype in Scotland’s Firth of Clyde late last year.

    According to Sidharth Kaushal, a research fellow in sea power at the Royal United Services Institute, the new tech is “pretty significant,” as it’s among one of the first truly autonomous systems to be fully operational.

    This offers several advantages, he said, noting the efficiency gains of AI. “But a more important factor is it provides stand-off,” he added.

    Naval mines are often clustered in or near active conflict zones, such as the port of Odesa in Ukraine, or the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow strip of water through which a third of the world’s oil flows and which has long been threatened by Houthi forces.

    In places like this, “the threat posed by naval mines overlaps with the threat posed by things like anti-ship cruise missiles,” Kaushal said, adding that this is “obviously a pretty significant challenge for traditional mine countermeasures vessels.”

    He said that despite its price tag, the new system is likely cheaper than traditional mine countermeasures vessels, “and there’s also the additional advantage of not having to worry as much about losing crews.”

    Read the original article on Business Insider
  • CEO shares secret to creating this unique aircraft the Navy is investing over $7 million in to fly parts to broken warships

    PteroDynamics Transwing design, the XP-4, in flight.
    PteroDynamics makes the Transwing, as seen here in the X-P4 model. The wings can fold around the fuselage, remain halfway open, or move to full fixed-wing flight.

    • The US Navy is looking into using drones to deliver critical repair cargo to broken warships.
    • The BlueWater Maritime Logistics UAS project seeks innovative VTOL designs.
    • The unique PteroDynamics Transwing design recently received a $4.65 million contract expansion.

    The US Navy wants to know if roughly motorcycle-sized drones can do what its larger piloted workhorse helicopter and tiltrotor aircraft are currently doing — flying critical repair cargo out to broken warships.

    Critical repair parts for incapacitated warships, such as circuit boards, o-rings, or pumps, around half the time weigh less than a pound. The current delivery approach wastes fuel and other resources and puts a lot of unnecessary wear and tear on Military Sealift Command’s H-60 and V-22 aircraft.

    No one really needs a heavy, crewed aircraft for this. There just isn’t a proven alternative, at least not yet.

    Solving that problem — the primary focus of the Navy’s BlueWater Maritime Logistics UAS project — is a major opportunity for defense tech firms like Colorado-based PteroDynamics Inc.

    “Something is valuable. It needs to get somewhere that is hard to get to. It has to get there quickly. It’s time-sensitive. And people are paying a lot of money today to do that mission,” PteroDynamics CEO Matthew Graczyk, told Business Insider.

    PteroDynamics Transwing design, the XP-4, on the deck of a warship.
    PteroDynamics worked with the Navy to test the Transwing design during the Rim of the Pacific naval exercise last year.

    The company recently picked up a $4.65 million contract expansion from the Naval Air Warfare Center Aircraft Division for the development of its novel Transwing aircraft design, bringing the total contract value to over $7 million. The new funding will support development of a new Transwing model, the XP-5.

    Multiple companies have contributed BlueWater UAS ideas, many of which are variations of classic designs. The Transwing, as an articulating- or “cracking-wing” design, is unique.

    It’s a “very interesting design,” the BlueWater project lead, Bill Macchione, told BI, explaining that the aim as the Navy evaluates uncrewed vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) designs is to find innovations with reduced complexity both in the engineering and employment.

    “That is what was very interesting about the PteroDynamics design being an articulating wing,” he said. It’s a “simple linear actuator that basically just articulates the wings on a pivot, and those pushers, those traditional propellers in fixed wing, become the lift propellers in VTOL mode.”

    ‘That’s where disruption happens’

    The first VTOL aircraft designs were early helicopters. Then came designs like lift jets, tail-sitter aircraft, and tilt rotors. PteroDynamics has now patented a new design that leverages the propellers in all flight modes and can fold the wings around the fuselage.

    Its wings stretch out in the cruise phase of flight and fold back during vertical flight to a configuration resembling a quadcopter during take-off and landing.

    Graczyk calls the Transwing design “VTOL 3.0.”

    PteroDynamics Transwing design, the XP-4, in VTOL mode.
    The Transwing is unusual because it breaks away from traditional VTOL aircraft designs.

    The unique design came from Val Petrov, a mathematician, chemist, and expert in nonlinear dynamics who spent years in asset and capital management. He wasn’t an aviation engineer, but he was, as Graczyk told BI, a “tinkerer.”

    “When you ask someone who is educated in a field, who has worked in a field, how to solve a problem, they go into how they’ve been taught to solve the problem,” Graczyk said, and you ultimately end up with a variation of an existing design.

    “When you ask a guy who has not been taught how to solve the problem, that’s where innovation lives,” he said, telling BI that is the key to making something new. “That’s where disruption happens. That is how Petrov was able to conceive of this Transwing that didn’t come from Airbus or Lockheed or Raytheon or Boeing.”

    Petrov is PteroDynamics’ founder and chairman of its board.

    Whether the PteroDynamics design is what the Navy ultimately needs remains to be seen, but the service is interested.

    Some of the other uncrewed aircraft designs being looked at and tested by the Navy as part of the BlueWater program include Skyways V2.6, ShieldAI’s V-BAT, and Sierra Nevada Corporation’s Voly-50, among others featuring their own innovations.

    ‘The world is changing’

    The Navy’s BlueWater UAS technology development program started years ago, evolving from a 2018 study that found about 48% of all critical repair cargo being flown out to ships by Military Sealift Command aircraft is under 16 ounces, smaller than a regular water bottle. The study found that 76% of all parts are under 10 pounds, and 90% are under 50 pounds.

    The Navy is interested in determining whether VTOL drones weighing under 330 pounds can run these delivery missions instead of crewed aircraft.

    The drones have to be able to fly 400 nautical miles round trip, perhaps eventually 1,000 miles, on a mixture of electricity and JP-5 fuel with a 50-pound payload stored internally and land on the deck of a moving ship at sea without any support infrastructure and minimal sailor involvement.

    Using small drones points to big cost savings. Each Sikorsky SH-60/MH-60 Seahawk costs over $30 million and requires two fully trained and proficient human pilots. That is not even factoring in the operational and sustainment costs.

    In the drones, there also has to be a certain degree of autonomy.

    PteroDynamics Transwing design, the XP-4, in flight.
    PteroDynamics expects that the Transwing design is going to be a 30-year aircraft design, one that will persist through evolutions in this technology space.

    This is “not the kind of thing where somebody is sitting with a controller in their hand and controlling the aircraft,” Graczyk said of the Transwing. “You lay out your mission on a computer, so just one laptop, an operator, and an aircraft, that’s all you need, and you communicate the mission to the aircraft. You push go, and it takes off, does the mission, and lands. You don’t have to be involved anymore.”

    “To a certain extent, it can make decisions on its own,” he said.

    Getting a drone to fly that mission is nothing like Amazon drone deliveries. Amazon doesn’t have to worry about adversaries trying to shoot them down or jam their communications. And there is also no need to land it on a moving target in an unforgiving delivery environment.

    “Landing on ships and working around ships is not easy,” John Bruening, the director of MSC’s Taluga Group, told BI.

    Meeting the tough operational expectations of the Navy’s BlueWater technology development program is a complex technological challenge that the Navy has been working with a range of companies to overcome. The project is not yet a program of record and is experimental for now. Still, this is clearly where military technology is heading.

    “The world is changing,” Graczyk said. “We’re seeing geopolitics changing, we’re seeing the way warfare is conducted changing, and the way diplomacy is conducted, all of that’s changing. There is a particular shift in bias toward higher volume, lower cost autonomous systems that are attritable, that are expendable.”

    There are tremendous possibilities and “an evolutionary introduction into the market” is the key, he said. “We’re trying to use this revolutionary technology to solve problems that exist today.”

    Read the original article on Business Insider
  • Israel needs US stealth bombers if Trump decides to destroy Iran’s nuclear sites

    A potent attack on Iran's nuclear sites would likely require heavy firepower and bombers like the Northrop B-2 Spirit able to carry it.
    A potent attack on Iran’s nuclear sites would likely require heavy firepower and bombers like the Northrop B-2 Spirit able to carry it.

    • Israel would need US help if it set out to destroy Iran’s underground nuclear sites.
    • The operation would require repeated cruise missile strikes and heavy, bunker-busting bombs.
    • There are limits to what the US and Israel could accomplish in a short air campaign.

    Iran can enrich enough uranium for a nuclear weapon within weeks. The options to stop Iran from getting a bomb, if it so chooses, are through a nuclear deal like the one President Donald Trump withdrew from in 2018 or with overwhelming military force.

    “There are two ways Iran can be handled, militarily or you can make a deal. I would prefer to make a deal,” Trump said in a March 6 interview with Fox News. The US, he said, has “a situation with Iran that’s going to happen very soon, very, very soon.”

    Early signs of a deal were inauspicious. Trump dialed up the pressure on Iran after US strikes on the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen over the weekend, warning in a Monday Truth Social post that “every shot fired by the Houthis will be looked upon, from this point forward, as being a shot fired from the weapons and leadership of IRAN.”

    Israel could attempt pre-emptive strikes, but they would likely need US airpower in what would be a major escalation if they aimed to demolish Iran’s underground facilities for weapons-grade uranium, according to military analysts.

    To wipe out Iran’s nuclear facilities, US and Israel would need to carry out repeated strikes with stand-off weapons like cruise missiles, Ryan Bohl, a senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at the risk intelligence company RANE, told Business Insider.

    Such strikes could also require the Northrop B-2 Spirit stealth bomber. The B-2 is the only aircraft that can carry the US’s 15-ton GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator, the largest US bunker buster, and one of the most powerful non-nuclear bombs. A B-2 notably bombed hardened underground weapon sites belonging to the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen in October.

    “It would be a major milestone in the history of warfare should we see a joint Israeli-US strike on Iran,” Bohl said. “It would give us insight into how such (American-made) systems might also perform against, say, Russia and China, whose systems are in some ways similar to that of Iran’s.”

    The United Nations Security Council discussed Iran’s enrichment of uranium near weapons-grade level in a closed meeting on Wednesday. The US accused Iran of “flagrantly” defying the council over its rapid uranium enrichment.

    The Juniper Oak exercises were the largest joint exercises in US-Israeli history. They included aircraft like Israeli Air Force F-16s.
    The Juniper Oak exercises were the largest joint exercises in US-Israeli history. They included aircraft like Israeli Air Force F-16s.

    Amid the back and forth between the Trump administration and Iran, a US Air Force B-52 Stratofortess bomber drilled with Israeli Air Force F-35 stealth jets and F-15 fighters. Both air forces have drilled on numerous occasions in recent years in preparation for a possible attack against Iran.

    The largest-ever exercise was Juniper Oak in January 2023, when American and Israeli F-35 stealth jets, drones, and US strategic bombers dropped over 180,000 pounds of live munitions.

    “Juniper Oak gave us insight into how a maximum escalation scenario might play out with joint Israel-US operations,” Bohl said.

    Why Israel would likely need US bombers

    Israel’s fighter fleet consists of fourth-generation American-made F-15 and F-16 jets and more advanced fifth-generation F-35s made by Lockheed Martin. Israel doesn’t have heavy bombers capable of carrying large bunker-buster munitions.

    The two primary targets of any strikes would be the Natanz and Fordow underground enrichment facilities. Natanz is deep underground and shielded by reinforced concrete in the central Isfahan province. Satellite imagery taken in 2023 indicated Iran has dug tunnels near the site too deep for even the GBU-57 to damage effectively. Fordow is the country’s second uranium enrichment facility, which Iran dug inside a mountain to build near the holy city of Qom.

    US-Israeli airstrikes would have to be part of a larger, complex campaign that also targets Iranian air defenses and ballistic missiles with air and ship-launched munitions, drones, cyberattacks, and possibly limited special operations raids, according to Nicholas Heras, senior director of strategy and innovation at the New Lines Institute.

    Israel already inflicted widespread damage on Iran’s Russian-made S-300 air defenses during its October 26 airstrikes. Another round of strikes, especially with American participation, could prove much more devastating.

    “Iran is on the back foot defending its airspace,” RANE’s Bohl said.

    While Iran’s antiquated air force is outclassed and outgunned by the USAF and IAF, there are still limits to what the latter’s cutting-edge airpower can achieve, especially if America and Israel are reluctant to conduct a long campaign. And if a US-Israeli campaign does not broadly target Iran’s military arsenal, Tehran could mount substantial retaliation.

    For years, the country has possessed the largest arsenal of ballistic missiles in the region. While these missiles failed to inflict significant damage during Iran’s April and October 2024 attacks against Israel, they could still menace US bases in the Middle East or force Israel to expend more of its expensive and finite high-altitude Arrow anti-ballistic missile interceptors in order to fend them off.

    Iran has had decades to prepare for such an attack.

    It’s possible “Iran is able to weather the worst of it and rebuild,” since bombs and missiles can fail to destroy all of the Iranian centrifuges used to enrich uranium, Bohl said.

    Either way, a joint air assault against Iran could prove unprecedented.

    “Without a doubt, a joint US-Israel military campaign against Iran’s nuclear program would be one of the largest, and certainly the most technologically advanced, in human history,” New Lines Institute’s Heras said.

    Paul Iddon is a freelance journalist and columnist who writes about Middle East developments, military affairs, politics, and history. His articles have appeared in a variety of publications focused on the region.

    Read the original article on Business Insider
  • New video shows US fighter aircraft knocking out Houthi drones with rockets much cheaper than top air-to-air missiles

    A Houthi drone is seen (left) before it is shot down.
    A Houthi drone is seen (left) before it is shot down.

    • The US military published new footage showing its aircraft using rockets to destroy Houthi drones.
    • The footage underscores how US fighter jets can use munitions that are cheaper than air-to-air missiles.
    • The air-to-air engagement comes amid a new chapter in the Red Sea conflict.

    The US military published a video on Wednesday offering a rare look at an air-to-air kill from the Red Sea fight. It shows American fighter aircraft eliminating Houthi drones with cheap, guided rockets costing only a fraction of the price of top air-to-air missiles.

    The hit highlights a cost-effective way for American jets to take down Houthi drones, which have been a persistent threat, along with missiles, for well over a year now.

    US Central Command, which oversees Middle East operations, said Wednesday that a US fighter aircraft shot down a Houthi one-way attack drone using APKWS laser-guided rockets. The footage shows two drones exploding above the water.

    The AGR-20 FALCO Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System, or APKWS, are unguided Hydra 70 2.75-inch rockets equipped with laser guidance kits to turn them into precision weapons. The rockets are nearly 19 inches long and less than 3 inches in diameter, making them quite slim.

    Gen. David Allvin, the Air Force Chief of Staff, said the APKWS costs just $35,000 a piece — a fraction of one of the air-to-air missiles that could have been used instead to take down the drone. For instance, he said, the AIM-9 missile costs around $500,000, while the AIM-120 is more than double that at around $1 million.

    An F-16 is seen armed with an APKWS rocket.
    An F-16 is seen armed with an APKWS rocket.

    The cost of the rockets is more closely aligned with the price tag of a Houthi drone, which is likely in the range of tens of thousands of dollars. Officials have said that using an expensive missile to intercept this kind of threat is on the wrong side of the cost curve.

    “More savings. More lethality. More Air Force,” Allvin wrote on social media on Wednesday.

    CENTCOM did not disclose when or where the engagement occurred, nor did it say what aircraft used the APKWS to shoot down the Houthi drones. These rockets can be fired from a range of aircraft. A US official told The War Zone earlier this year that US Air Force F-16s had used the rockets against Houthi drones.

    Years earlier, the Air Force tested the air-to-ground rockets as a cheaper air-to-air kill solution.

    The footage comes amid a fresh campaign of US airstrikes against the Houthis in Yemen. The Trump administration has vowed to intensify its efforts to deter the rebel group from attacking military and civilian vessels transiting key Middle East shipping lanes.

    The new campaign began on Saturday, with CENTCOM saying that it had “initiated a series of operations consisting of precision strikes against Iran-backed Houthi targets across Yemen to defend American interests, deter enemies, and restore freedom of navigation.”

    Air Force Lt. Gen Alexus Grynkewich, the director of operations for the Joint Staff, said Monday that the initial wave of strikes hit over 30 Houthi targets at multiple locations in Yemen, including training sites, drone infrastructure, weapons storage facilities, and command centers.

    Grynkewich told reporters at a briefing that the operation extended into Sunday and Monday and would continue for several days “until we achieve the president’s objectives.”

    CENTCOM has published footage this week showing flight operations aboard the USS Harry S. Truman — the latest US aircraft carrier to see combat against the Houthis — as well as missile launches from warships in its strike group.

    And President Donald Trump has suddenly taken an aggressive approach to the Houthi conflict after a period of relative quiet in the Red Sea. He has vowed to keep striking the rebels and even threatened to go after Iran, their main supporter and provider of military assistance.

    “Tremendous damage has been inflicted upon the Houthi barbarians, and watch how it will get progressively worse — It’s not even a fair fight, and never will be. They will be completely annihilated!” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform on Wednesday.

    Read the original article on Business Insider
  • Ukrainian sniper says it made a big difference trading his hunting rifle for the Barrett MRAD

    A Ukrainian sniper practices in the Kharkiv region on March 12.
    A Ukrainian sniper practices in the Kharkiv region.

    • A Ukrainian sniper described how he made the jump from a hunting rifle to a US-made Barrett MRAD sniper rifle.
    • He told BI that the US-made Barrett had a positive effect on operations.
    • He said that the Barrett was more accurate than the hunting rifle with which he started the war.

    A Ukrainian Special Operations Forces sniper told Business Insider that it made a huge difference in battle when he traded out his civilian hunting rifle for a US-made Barrett MRAD, a weapon the US military embraced years ago for its versatility.

    The sniper said that he only used his hunting rifle for a short period in the fall of 2023 before upgrading to the Barrett sniper rifle.

    Harley is a Ranger in Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces 4th Regiment. He told BI through a translator that when Russia launched its full-scale invasion, he went to war with his hunting rifle from US gunmaker Savage Arms. Then he got his hands on the MRAD, or Multi-role Adaptaptive Design, rifle from Barrett Firearms.

    Both guns are bolt-action rifles, but Harley described the Savage as a civilian rifle, not a military one. By contrast, the Barrett rifle was created specifically to meet the requirements of a US Special Operations Command, or SOCOM, sniper rifle program. Different US service branches have picked up the rifle over the years. The weapon is also used by other militaries, including Ukraine.

    A US Army Green Beret does sniper training with a Barrett MRAD rifle in Bulgaria on March 2.
    A US Army Green Beret does sniper training with a Barrett MRAD rifle in Bulgaria.

    Harley said that he received the MRAD chambered in .338 Lapua Magnum. The interesting thing about the MRAD, though, is that it can be chambered in different calibers. The sniper said he could change out the barrel in training, using cheaper, more readily available .308 ammunition. He said it gives him greater flexibility.

    Different calibers support different mission sets, so the ability to change the barrel and caliber of the rifle out in the field is exceptionally advantageous. The US Army has described this rifle as “a multi-caliber, bolt-action sniper rifle, which is effective against personnel and material targets at extreme ranges.”

    Harley also praised the Barrett for having a more accurate barrel than the Savage.

    “I can say that the rifle is very good,” Harley said of the Barrett. He could not disclose whether he’s had any confirmed kills as a sniper.

    A Ukrainian soldier holds a Savage 110 sniper rifle in the Kharkiv region on March 18.
    A Ukrainian soldier holds a Savage 110 sniper rifle in the Kharkiv region on March 18.

    Harley stressed that it’s not just the weapon that matters in combat. The attachments can make a difference in effectiveness. He can outfit his MRAD rifle with add-ons like thermal imaging attachments, night vision sights, and laser guidance to give him an edge in battle.

    “The rifle itself will do nothing without a sight, without a night vision device, without a night observation device,” he said. The Barrett attachments allow him to work during the day and night.

    A sniper has a unique ability to send precision fire down range for a kill, typically from concealed positions, but they often support operations in other ways, such as targeting and overwatch. The rifle is a valuable tool in those missions, even if a shot is never fired.

    Harley described how he could find a Russian target and highlight it for a fellow soldier operating a Mk 19 grenade launcher, who could then drop a high-explosive round on the Russian target. In other words, the Barrett shouldn’t be viewed as just an individual weapon but rather part of a bigger system of capabilities.

    Harley used the Barrett for a year until last fall, when he became an instructor. During his years in active combat operations, he was sent to different sectors of the front line.

    Read the original article on Business Insider
  • Yonaguni is a serene Japanese island featured in a Bad Bunny song — and at the front of a US-China war. See photos.

    A Japanese flag waves inside the fence of the Japan Self-Defense Forces base on Yonaguni.
    A Japanese flag waves inside the fence of the Japan Self-Defense Forces base on Yonaguni.

    • A remote Japanese island inadvertently found itself in the crosshairs of China-Taiwan tensions.
    • Less than 100 miles from Taiwan’s capital, Japan’s westernmost island has rapidly militarized.
    • China’s looming threat has left the island’s tiny population of 1,500 concerned for their safety.

    A quiet Japanese island has found itself on the front lines of the tense dispute over Taiwan.

    Growing tensions between China and Taiwan, a self-governing democracy that Beijing claims is part of its territory, has transformed Japan’s once quaint ecotourism destination into a military fortress.

    Yonaguni, Japan’s westernmost island, is located just shy of 100 miles from the Taiwanese capital of Taipei, making it a strategic frontline outpost for Japan and allies like the US. In a reminder of the island’s new status, a cattle ranch has become a military base, and authorities are expanding the port to accommodate larger warships.

    “As a child, I was so proud of this westernmost border island,” Fumie Kano, an innkeeper on Yonaguni, told the Associated Press. “But recently, we are repeatedly told this place is dangerous, and I feel so sad.”

    While the influx of troops has boosted the island’s security and economy, residents are forced to brace themselves against a possible conflict mere miles away.

    Japan’s westernmost island

    A monument marks Japan's westernmost point on Yonaguni.
    A monument marks Japan’s westernmost point on Yonaguni.

    Located over 300 miles from Okinawa’s main island, Yonaguni Island is considered the most remote of all the Okinawan islands. The island has an area of about 11 square miles — roughly the same size as Disney World’s Magic Kingdom theme park.

    Only a third of the island is inhabited by three villages — Sonai, Kubura, and Higawa — with the remaining area being covered by farmland and vegetation.

    Fishing, agriculture, and tourism are the main sources of livelihood for the island’s tiny population of about 1,500 people.

    The island was once home to 12,000 people in the late 1940s, but has shrunk to less than 2,000 people in recent years.

    Known for natural beauty — and Bad Bunny

    Wild horses graze on the vegetation on Yonaguni island.
    Wild horses graze on the vegetation on Yonaguni island.

    Yonaguni is known for its picturesque landscapes and rare animal species, including three-foot-tall ponies that can only be found on the island. The Atlas moth, considered the world’s largest moth with a wingspan of nearly 10 inches, is also native to the island.

    As Japan’s westernmost inhabited island, it is the last place in Japan to see the setting sun.

    In 2021, the island also inspired Bad Bunny’s chart-topping reggaeton song, Yonaguni, in which the Puerto Rican rapper sings in both Spanish and Japanese.

    Home to Japan’s so-called ‘Atlantis’

    A diver swims by an underwater section of the Yonaguni Monument known as the Main Terrace.
    A diver swims by an underwater section of the Yonaguni Monument known as the Main Terrace.

    The island is also known for mysterious underwater ruins stretching over 300 feet near its southern coast, known as the Yonaguni Monument. Whether the monument was manmade or naturally formed is still under debate, with scientists estimating that the megalith could have been created long before humans had the means to create such a structure.

    Divers have spotted hammerhead sharks and, on rare occasions, a whale shark, the largest fish in the world.

    Arming the island

    An infographic shows the ballistic missile launch points and flight paths fired by China in August 2022.
    An infographic shows the ballistic missile launch points and flight paths fired by China in August 2022.

    Yonaguni lies less than 70 miles from the east coast of Taiwan between the East China Sea and the Philippine Sea.

    As China’s military presence continues to grow in the region, Japan has strengthened its military presence, particularly on its southwestern islands, such as Ishigaki, Miyako, and Yonaguni.

    A cattle ranch on Yonaguni has been transformed into a military base, and Japanese forces plan to expand an airport and port on the island’s south coast to accommodate large ships.

    The Japanese Ground Self-Defense Force has deployed US-made PAC-3 interceptor missile units and Japanese surface-to-air missile systems to the southwestern islands.

    Tom Shugart, former US Navy submariner and adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, said the missile systems could be useful in a conflict scenario over Taiwan.

    “If Japan is involved in helping to defend Taiwan, which it has said it might, then that system might be useful,” Shugart told Newsweek. “Not so much for protecting any large-scale infrastructure on Yonaguni — because I don’t think there is any — but it might be useful for protecting offensive systems that could be used against China.”

    Idyllic island to fortified fortress

    An aerial view of the fishing port at Kubura village on Yonaguni.
    An aerial view of the fishing port at Kubura village on Yonaguni.

    Despite residents voting to bring Japanese military forces and assets to the island, some locals remain apprehensive about the rapid militarization of the island.

    “Even those who voted in favour of the base are scared about missiles being based here,” Toshio Sakimoto, a local councillor, told The Guardian. “I worry whenever something is happening in Taiwan, such as an election or Chinese military drills.”

    To quell islanders’ fears about what would happen in an actual emergency, officials released a plan last detailing the evacuation of 120,000 residents on remote islands in just under a week.

    Yonaguni Mayor Kenichi Itokazu proposed building a basement shelter and expanding its port to support evacuation efforts by sea, though skepticism still surrounds the contingency efforts.

    “It’s absurd,” Kano, the Yonaguni innkeeper, told AP of the evacuation plan. “I just hope the money will be spent on policies that will help the people in Yonaguni live peacefully.”

    A growing military presence

    The entrance to the Japan Self-Defense Forces base on Yonaguni island.
    The entrance to the Japan Self-Defense Forces base on Yonaguni island.

    Not only has the landscape of Yonaguni changed in recent years, but the population is also experiencing a shift.

    Following a 2015 referendum, hundreds of Japanese troops have been deployed to Yonaguni, including a coast watch unit and an electronic warfare unit.

    The local economy has improved and, in turn, grown largely dependent on Japanese military personnel and their families which now make up a fifth of the island’s population, sparking concerns for local civilians.

    “Everything is pushed through in the name of the Taiwan emergency,” Kyoko Yamaguchi, a local potter, told the AP, “and many feel this is too much.”

    Public data forecasts that the troop population and their dependents could make up over 31% of the island’s tiny 1,500-member population, The Guardian reported, with the potential to rise to almost 40% the following year.

    Tetsu Inomata, a café owner who lived in Yonaguni for 20 years, told The Guardian that he believes the Japanese armed forces could overtake the island’s civilian population in the next few years.

    Disrupting the peace

    A fishing boat sails along the coast of Yonaguni.
    A fishing boat sails along the coast of Yonaguni.

    Residents of the island have seen firsthand China’s increasing military presence in the region.

    In 2022, China fired several ballistic missiles into Japan’s southwestern waters, one of which landed just 50 miles from Yonaguni island near 20 fishing boats, though no injuries or damage was reported in the incident.

    “It was an extremely dangerous exercise that really made us feel China’s potential threat right next to us,” Shigenori Takenishi, chief of Yonaguni’s fisheries association, told the AP.

    In August, the US Marine Corps deployed radar to Camp Yonaguni after Chinese Y-9 electronic intelligence aircraft and two drones presumed to belong to China passed near the island during surveillance missions of Taiwan.

    The next month, Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning transited through waters between Yonaguni and Iriomote Islands, which drew concern from the West. The percentage of Chinese warships passing through the Yonaguni Channel has increased since 2020 from 0 to over 26% as of 2024, according to Japan’s defense ministry.

    The US and Japan have also conducted military drills in the region, in part to project power against China. Stressed by ongoing military activity, locals criticized the drills as disrupting the island’s serenity.

    A divided community

    Shigenori Takenishi, the head of the fisheries cooperative, stands beside a hanging swordfish during an interview on Yonaguni.
    Shigenori Takenishi, the head of the fisheries cooperative on Yunaguni, gestures toward a hanging swordfish.

    The militarization of the once-tranquil island has left residents divided on whether the buildup has been beneficial or detrimental.

    Supporters say Japanese military personnel have been crucial for the island’s safety and a much-needed boost to its struggling local economy. Prior to hosting Japanese troops, Yonaguni officials had planned to form economic relations through commercial exchanges with Taiwan via direct ferries between the islands.

    Critics have accused the US and Japan of exploiting the island simply for the sake of military posturing against China, with little to no regard for its impact on its residents and the environment.

    “I think the plan has been to have long-range missiles here that are capable of reaching the coast of China,” Inomata, the café owner, told The Guardian. “We’re being used by the Americans, and Japanese leaders like Fumio Kishida and Shinzō Abe have been willing participants. For them, everything is about defense.”

    ‘Beautiful island turning into a battlefield’

    A local innkeeper stands outside her business on Yonaguni.
    A local innkeeper stands outside her business on Yonaguni.

    Shoko Komine, a local restaurant owner, told The Guardian that there’s a chance Yonaguni could get “dragged into” a conflict over Taiwan, which would drive people away from visiting the island.

    “I don’t think there is going to be a conflict any time soon, but even the risk of something happening will stop tourists from coming,” Komine said. “The town government should put more effort into promoting tourism, but at the moment it is obsessed with defense.”

    Yonaguni residents fear the military build-up could tarnish the island’s reputation as a peaceful island known for its untamed wildlife and beauty.

    “Being at the center of this issue is very stressful for residents,” local shopkeeper Takako Ueno told the AP. “I don’t want people to imagine this beautiful island turning into a battlefield.”

    Read the original article on Business Insider
  • Top general warns Marines that their cellphones could get them killed in new video pointing out Russian catastrophes

    A US Marine sends a text message to his comrades about his situation. It's a screengrab from a video.
    In this screengrab from a Marine Corps video on the dangers of cellphone usage, a Marine sends a message to his friends in battle. That has been deadly in Ukraine.

    • The top Marine Corps general issued a warning to troops about battlefield cellphone usage.
    • Cellphone data can reveal troop locations, making them vulnerable to enemy attacks.
    • The war in Ukraine highlights the dangers of cellphone use in a combat environment.

    The Marine Corps’ top general sent a video reminder out to the force this week, cautioning troops that battlefield cellphone usage can have deadly consequences. It points to Russian disasters in Ukraine.

    The video shared on social media shows a Marine who escaped enemy fire seeking refuge in an abandoned building. Assuming he’s safe, the Marine pulls out his phone to send a text asking for assistance, sending his location with it.

    What no one realizes in this exchange is that the messages were intercepted. As his fellow Marines come to his aid, an enemy strike hits, resulting in fatalities.

    The video then turns the discussion to the conflict in Ukraine, noting news headlines from the war about the weaponization of mobile phones, and how cellphone usage by Russian soldiers led to a deadly Ukrainian strike.

    The video references a devastating strike that killed scores of Russian troops in Makiivka at the end of 2022. Moscow blamed cellphone usage, but there appear to have been multiple factors involved. It still serves as a point of caution all the same.

    “If you can be sensed, you can be targeted,” Gen. Eric Smith, Commandant of the Marine Corps, said in the video. “And if you can be targeted, you can be killed.”

    While the Marine in the video shares his exact location, map coordinates are not needed for troops to endanger themselves or their comrades. When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian troops posted videos on social media and called loved ones back home, all data that Ukraine used to strike.

    Phone calls, texts, and photos shared with friends over unprotected lines can be intercepted and mined for metadata, showing where they were taken. Open-source information gleaned from photos has been fatal in Ukraine.

    Russia has implemented several cellphone bans, and in 2024, Russia’s lower house of parliament proposed legislation that would punish troops for using their personal phones in battle.

    It’s not just phone usage that causes problems in combat; it’s unintentional signal emissions, too, like the phones pinging off cell towers. “The character of war continues to change,” Smith said. “The proliferation of technology has made signature management essential on the battlefield.”

    The Marine Corps released its most current official policy on cell phones in 2024, Capt. Stephanie Baer, a spokesperson, told Business Insider.

    She said “the posted video is an amplification and continual reminder of the importance of the policy on usage in all situations,” and added that the video’s release was not linked to any specific recent events.

    The idea of “signature management” has been a critical tenant of discipline on the battlefield, but it’s become increasingly important on modern battlefields where electronic emissions can betray positions and movements.

    A unit’s “signature” generally refers to its presence and how easily it can be detected. Light, noise levels, and movement can all be elements of signature management. But with the proliferation of cell phones, and social media, the idea of signature discipline is morphing into a more urgent concern.

    Smith isn’t the first Marine leader to warn about cellphones. Former Commandant Gen. David Berger noted such concerns about cellphone vulnerabilities to defense reporters in 2022.

    “We have to be distributed. You have to have enough mobility that you can relocate your unit pretty often,” he said of efforts to prepare for expeditionary operations throughout the Pacific. “You have to learn all about — like some of us learned 30 years ago — camouflage, decoys, deception,” he said.

    “What we didn’t worry so much about 30 years ago now is every time you press a button, you’re emitting,” he said.

    Read the original article on Business Insider
  • Trump and Putin may have a deal, but it’s a long way from ending the Ukraine war

    A Ukrainian soldier fires a mortar round during training in the Donetsk region on March 10.
    A Ukrainian soldier fires a mortar round during training in the Donetsk region on March 10.

    • President Trump held his latest conversation with Vladimir Putin on Tuesday.
    • The two agreed to set in motion a reduction of targeting in Ukraine, with more negotiations later.
    • There are still major — and difficult — questions ahead to end Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine.

    After being bullied into accepting the American proposal, Ukraine has signaled a willingness to accept US-made plans for a cease-fire with Russia. However, Moscow does not appear to be on the same page.

    President Donald Trump spoke on Tuesday with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin. The two leaders agreed on a preliminary reduction in missile and drone attacks on energy and infrastructure, setting the stage for follow-on negotiations, according to a White House readout of the call. It does not end Russia’s effort to seize more land from Ukraine, which is happening amid a slackening of US arms support.

    “The leaders agreed that the movement to peace will begin with an energy and infrastructure ceasefire, as well as technical negotiations on implementation of a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea, full ceasefire and permanent peace,” the readout said. “These negotiations will begin immediately in the Middle East.”

    The readout lays out a framework for further talks to end the war, but it remains unclear whether Ukraine will be part of those direct negotiations and whether the Russian leader is willing to stop the war.

    It has been a very hard road, and there are tough questions hanging over the Trump administration’s efforts to end the bloodshed in this three-year war that Russia launched to dominate Ukraine at the cost of hundreds of thousands of lives and devastated cities and towns.

    Some of the big looming questions are whether a cease-fire deal as Trump has sought is reachable and will hold, how Kyiv’s security can be guaranteed, and what will deter Russia from invading again. On some of these issues, the history is far from reassuring.

    Ukraine will need to maintain a large standing force and a wartime defense industry, with Western arms backing, to defend itself if the front lines are frozen. An added element would be an international peacekeeping force of 30,000 that still may not be enough to slow a renewed Russian offensive.

    Can Russia be trusted?

    The biggest challenge with a cease-fire deal could be getting it to actually hold. Russia has violated previous agreements with Ukraine since the invasion first began in 2014, not to mention earlier ones.

    From left: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, US President Donald Trump, and Vice President JD Vance argue during a meeting in the Oval Office on February 28.
    From left: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, US President Donald Trump, and Vice President JD Vance argue during a meeting in the Oval Office on February 28.

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy voiced these concerns during last month’s Oval Office meeting with Trump and Vice President JD Vance when the Ukrainian leader pointed to the fact that Putin broke a cease-fire deal with Kyiv in 2019. The Ukrainian president was then accused of not wanting peace.

    Kyiv has long feared that a cease-fire would be a respite for the bruised Russian army, a breather before it takes another swing. Russia, which currently has the battlefield initiative and is closing the Kursk salient while pressing forward inside Ukraine, has said it worries about giving the Ukrainians a chance to rest.

    Defense experts at the Council on Foreign Relations wrote in a January analysis of efforts to end this war that “Ukraine will need to determine how to deter Russia from using any period of calm as an opportunity to rearm, wait for the world to lower its collective guard, and then attack again.”

    Trump has said that he trusts Putin. The same can’t be said for Zelenskyy.

    The distrust between Kyiv and Moscow could be trouble in negotiations. Mark Cancian, a defense expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Ukraine’s “stumbling block” will be security guarantees. He told BI that Russia would also need to step back from maximum demands regarding Ukrainian sovereignty, territory, and disarmament to get to a cessation of hostilities.

    It is very possible that a cease-fire without strong arms support to Ukraine and a reduction in Russian aims fails to end or even substantially pause the war.

    The US has leverage over Ukraine because of its heavy arms support, but excluding Ukraine from direct talks with Russia may lead to a flawed cease-fire framework.

    Can Ukraine’s security be guaranteed?

    Kyiv has asked NATO for considerable security guarantees as part of a cease-fire deal with Russia. Ukraine is the second largest country in Europe and defends a 600-mile frontline through its land from the Black Sea to its northern border with Russia.

    While the UK and France have both indicated they are willing to send forces to Ukraine as part of a multinational security presence to ensure that Russia doesn’t violate a cease-fire, Moscow has said it will not accept NATO countries participating in such plans. Even if it warms to the idea, it’s a delicate and tricky situation.

    Ben Barry, a senior fellow for land warfare at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said in an analysis that a multinational force would demand structure, including an overarching strategy, unambiguous rules of engagement, and a very clear mission statement, among all the various other political and military considerations.

    A rescue worker puts out a fire on a house after it was hit by a Russian drone in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, on March 1.
    A rescue worker puts out a fire on a house after it was hit by a Russian drone in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, on March 1.

    US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said last month that any security guarantees must come from European and non-European militaries and not be deployed as part of a NATO mission. He said the US would not send troops to Ukraine.

    However, Vance said just days later that the US could send troops to Ukraine if Russia doesn’t negotiate in good faith.

    Michael Waltz, Trump’s national security advisor, said over the weekend that Ukraine might have to concede territory to Russia in exchange for security guarantees; Russia still occupies around 20% of Ukrainian territory in the east and south. What these guarantees might ultimately be remains uncertain.

    “Security guarantees must be tangible,” Cancian said, noting that assurances on paper mean very little.

    “We saw from the Budapest agreements of 1994 that signatures on a piece of paper are just that,” Cancian said of the agreement that pledged the US, UK, and Russia wouldn’t use force against Ukraine if it gave up its nuclear weapons. Russia then invaded the country exactly two decades later.

    If Ukraine can’t get Western forces to help ensure its security, history paints a bleak picture of potential outcomes. The Korean War is a frozen conflict, one in which aggression is deterred by around 30,000 US troops and the American nuclear umbrella. The grim alternatives when a country’s security isn’t guaranteed can be seen in the collapse of South Vietnam and Afghanistan.

    Experts say that Ukraine needs to bolster its defenses to be self-sufficient, regardless of security guarantees.

    In their CFR analysis, Paul Stares and Michael O’Hanlon argued that any strategy should focus on strengthening Ukraine’s military with strong deterrence abilities. They argued that post-war force planning should start now.

    Ukrainian soldiers prepare a drone for flight during a combat mission on March 12 in the Donetsk region.
    Ukrainian soldiers prepare a drone for flight during a combat mission on March 12 in the Donetsk region.

    Stares and O’Hanlon said that Ukraine needs a multilayered territorial defense system for the territory it still controls.

    “This step,” they wrote, “would comprise a hardened outer defense perimeter, a strategic rapid-response force to respond to serious threats, and enhanced protection for major population centers and critical infrastructure.” They called for an active-duty force of 500,000 and nearly the same in ready reserve.

    To deter Russian military power, Ukraine will need to further fortify its long lines with Russia and rebuild its arsenal with an aim that should Russian forces attack, they will be slowed by a defense-in-depth strategy, buying time for Ukraine to counter-attack. Layered defenses have proven effective and contributed to the war’s largely static lines.

    An international peacekeeping force could serve as conflict monitors. They could also have orders to assist Ukraine in fighting off a renewed Russian attack, a contribution that may be especially useful if they have air forces with stand-off weapons that can airstrike Russian assault columns.

    Can Russia be deterred?

    Ukrainian and European officials have said that hard military power and smart decision-making are needed to deter potential future Russian aggression.

    The European parliament said last week that Ukraine “must be empowered to reject hasty deals that weaken its security in the mid- and long-term and risk subjecting it and other European countries to renewed Russian aggression in the future.”

    A belligerent Russia poses a threat beyond Ukraine. It has one of the world’s largest arms industries and is mass-producing the firepower needed to advance on modern battlefields. Analysts worry it may only need a few years to regroup to re-attack Ukraine or seek conquest elsewhere.

    Parallel to the Ukraine war, there have been consistent concerns about increasing Russian aggression on NATO soil, especially amid questions of US support for the alliance under the Trump administration. These developments have pushed European countries to rearm and strengthen their militaries to deter Moscow.

    “In Europe, the long-term risk is a renewal of conflict after Russia has been able to rebuild its military forces,” said Cancian, a retired Marine Corps colonel. “In the Pacific, the risk is that China will see this partial Putin victory as an encouraging precedent for taking over Taiwan.”

    Russia could choose to go after Ukraine again. It could choose another target. Ukraine isn’t the first European country it’s invaded. How this war eventually ends will shape Moscow’s thinking, either deterring or emboldening it.

    Read the original article on Business Insider