Category: trump-trade-war

Fawn Weaver has never been able to run her business without worrying about tariffs. She launched her Tennessee whiskey brand, Uncle Nearest, in 2017, right before the European Union slapped tariffs on American whiskeys and bourbons as part of a back-and-forth trade war with Donald Trump in 2018. That means Weaver’s international sales strategy has been affected, basically, since “day one,” she says. And because Uncle Nearest was a new kid on the block, the company didn’t really have much wiggle room on prices.

“We couldn’t pass on those tariffs to the consumer,” she says. “We had to absorb them, and there was absolutely no way we could absorb them.”

When Europe suspended whiskey tariffs in 2021, Weaver wasn’t home-free, either. She knew the suspension might not be permanent, especially if Trump landed back in the White House. So when he won in November, Uncle Nearest pulled international sales from their annual earnings forecast in anticipation of a return to the trade war.

“We had to make a decision to not focus as much on international until the trade war was over,” she says. “Well, it’s not been over.”

And return the trade war has: The EU is threatening to implement a 50% tariff on American whiskeys. And now, there’s a new and surprising trade foe: Canada. The United States’ neighbors to the north aren’t putting tariffs on US-made bourbon in response to Trump’s various economic threats; they’re simply making it impossible to buy.

“They pulled us off the shelf right along with Jack Daniels,” Weaver says.

The reignition of the international brown liquor battle is another headache for an industry already reeling. After multiple years of solid growth in the 2010s and a pandemic-driven boom in 2020, domestic US whiskey sales have been on the decline, while international sales have flattened. Data from IWSR, an analytics firm focused on the alcohol industry, found that sales volume of US whiskeys fell by 1.2% in 2023, and another 2% in 2024. Globally, sales were flat in 2023 and are on track to decline in 2024. (American whiskeys include bourbon, Tennessee, and rye. The distinctions are key since all bourbons are whiskeys, but not all whiskeys are bourbon. If it’s American or Irish, it’s whiskey, with the “e.” If it’s from Scotland, England, Japan, or most other places, it’s spelled whisky.)

For customers, this could mean some of their favorite craft brands might struggle and even fold if they can’t get on enough shelves in America or abroad. Ironically, though, the bourbon industry’s tariff-related headaches may wind up being a plus for American drinkers in the near term — distilleries could wind up with a ton of inventory they can’t sell overseas and push more volumes and varieties onto the US market. That could mean prices on American booze come down in the near term, though some analysts say distributors could just charge more on everything, wherever it’s made.

There’s no denying the industry is facing troubles, but Weaver chafes at the idea of calling what’s happening a bourbon “bust.” Uncle Nearest is growing as a brand, and there are still plenty of whiskey drinkers out there, at home and abroad. Instead, what’s happening is more of a normalization, and one she thinks more people should have seen coming.

“Everyone was so caught up in this ‘boom,’ no one was forecasting for the correction,” she says. Whatever the case, Trump’s latest moves are a sobering moment for an industry that can no longer deny its growing pains.

The modern whiskey trend in America dates back to the “Mad Men” era of the 1950s and ’60s, explained Marten Lodewijks, the president of IWSR US. It’s popularity started tapering off in the ’70s — people tend not to want to drink what their parents drank. In the ’80s and ’90s, whiskey really struggled, which was a curse and a blessing, because it got to sit and age until it picked up in popularity once again in the 2000s, around when the show “Mad Men” came out.

“Those were sort of the glory days for Scotch whisky,” Lodewijks said. “The bourbon industry was a little bit later to the party, but obviously they weren’t blind to what was happening. And so they rose with the tide as well.”

Over the past decade or so, bourbon has really taken off, too. Much like Scotch, bourbon makers have focused on premiumization — improving the quality and raising the price point. Where it was once seen as a product for drunks, it’s now considered fancy. Because bourbon ages for less time than Scotch and has laxer rules around it in areas such as ingredients, distillers can be more dynamic in their approach, too. “You can sort of take more chances,” Lodewijks said. “You don’t have to wait 12 years to figure out whether or not your innovation is a complete miss or a potential success.”

So all of these distilleries and investors and everyone got a little bit ahead of themselves.

Per the Kentucky Distillers’ Association, an industry group, Kentucky produced 3.2 million barrels of whiskey in 2024 and has a record 14.3 million barrels aging. Multiple new producers and brands have popped up, bourbon collecting has risen in popularity, and some consumers have been willing and able to spend big on high-end bottles.

The COVID-19 pandemic put these trends on overdrive. People were sitting at home bored with money to spend, and they were spending more of it on alcohol.

“There was a massive runup during COVID,” said Tzvi Wiesel, a longtime whiskey investor and trader and the CEO of Baxus, a spirits trading platform. “So all of these distilleries and investors and everyone got a little bit ahead of themselves, and they’re like, ‘Oh, there’s going to be this level of demand and growth is going to continue forever.’”

Private investors got in on the action, pouring money into distilleries and upping production. “They built the capacity to make a million new barrels a year,” Wiesel said. The problem was, there wasn’t actually a sustainable place for that demand and growth.

The influx of money chasing the increased demand led to what’s become a market flush with product that has nowhere to go.

“The hedge funds and the private equity players, they’ve gone out and bought barrels, but they don’t have a brand to go along with it,” said Trey Zoeller, the founder and chief strategist at Jefferson’s Bourbon. “When bourbon was very scarce, that might’ve been a good investment. Now, there’s not nearly as many buyers for that as there were when there’s such scarcity.”

Despite hopes for a new normal, bourbon has long been a cyclical industry. Optimists expected the upward trajectory kicked off by the pandemic to continue, but the market’s come back down to earth.

On the one hand, demand is clearly decelerating. By 2022, Americans had returned to their normal drinking habits — when you’re back in the office, pouring an old-fashioned at 2 in the afternoon is a real no-no. Amid inflation and dwindling pandemic-driven savings, there’s also been a squeeze on consumers’ wallets. Alcohol is a discretionary item, meaning it’s a want, not a need, and when budgets are tight, people tend to lay off. There are structural factors in play as well. Gen Z is drinking less. Cannabis may be taking some market share from booze. GLP-1s such as Ozempic appear to curb alcohol cravings. Those are “probably having an impact on the margins,” said Nadine Sarwat, an analyst who covers the beverage and cannabis industries at Bernstein, though it’s not clear they’re huge factors — most 24-year-olds (of any generation) are not high-end whiskey drinkers.

On the supply side, the decline in consumer interest is happening at a time when there’s a glut of whiskey available. Because bourbon has to age for at least a couple of years — most are kept for four to six years — producers have to anticipate demand years in advance. It’s become increasingly clear that a lot of producers overshot their estimates. There’s a ton of bourbon sitting in barrels with no bottles to pour it into or brands that want to buy it. (Some brands distill their own whiskeys; some buy it from larger distilleries on contract; some do both and even blend different barrels together.) While distillers can sit on barrels for a while, there are limits, depending on the product. Most bourbon has about a 10-year age limit before it turns. Many investors are on a tighter timeline ito get their returns, meaning they have to cut prices on barrels to move them on the market.

This is just wild, the pricing on it and how much that has just crashed.

“What I was paying for four-year-old Kentucky bourbon three years ago, I can now get 10-year-old Kentucky bourbon cheaper,” said Blake Riber, who runs the craft spirits platform Seelbach’s and blogs about the whiskey industry at Bourbonr. “This is just wild, the pricing on it and how much that has just crashed in, call it, 12 months.”

Some producers have started to recognize the writing on the wall and scaled back, such as the distilled spirits maker MGP and the alcohol conglomerates Diageo and Brown-Forman.

“The challenge that they’re all going to be facing over the next few years is, what do I do with all of the extra liquid in order to either let it age more or are there other outlets that I can use?” Lodewijks said. That may mean more flavored whiskeys or more whiskey-based ready-to-drink cocktails — whatever gets it poured before it goes bad.

The tariffs, of course, are throwing a wrench in an already difficult situation. As part of Trump’s trade war, the EU is mulling ending the suspension of its tariffs on American whiskeys in early April. And this time, the bloc could set the levies at 50%, double the 25% from the president’s first term. Trump, in turn, has threatened a 200% tariff on wines, Champagnes, and other alcoholic products out of France and the rest of Europe.

It’s not entirely clear what it would mean for the American bourbon industry if the EU tariffs take effect. Given the recent glut and change in domestic appetites, growing sales outside America has been a key release valve for producers. Bernstein’s Sarwat estimates that tariffs would result in a 10% hit to operating income for Brown-Forman, which owns brands such as Jack Daniel’s and Woodford Reserve.

“Because US volumes have been really sluggish over the last couple of years, the international market has always been a real positive for increased penetration, and so any further challenges in that market does not help,” she said.

Lodewijks said the EU’s original 25% tariff led to about a 20% decline in whiskey sales to Europe, but that doesn’t necessarily mean we know what a 50% tariff would do. “There’s a point at which more and more consumers aren’t willing to spend or spend the money that it would take to buy the product. So I’m not saying necessarily it’ll be more than 40%, but likely, it would be more,” he said.

The broad point of Trump’s trade war — with Europe, China, whoever — is ostensibly to encourage companies to make more goods in the US. But in spaces such as alcohol, it’s not so simple. Tequila has to come from Mexico. Scotch is always from Scotland. American whiskey companies would love to sell more to people at home, but American drinkers are not picking up what they’re putting down. If tariffs go into effect on alcohol products coming into the US, people won’t necessarily switch over to domestically made bourbon. If you’re predominantly a wine drinker, you may not be jonesing to swap that for Wild Turkey overnight. And for the industry and Americans who do drink brown liquor, the tit-for-tat battle may not be a win either.

Last time around, American bourbon and whiskey companies ate a lot of the cost of tariffs instead of increasing prices. But not everyone in the space has such a luxury, especially the smaller guys who’ve already been pushed around by the bigger guys. They’re trying to fight for shelf space wherever they can get it and are still trying to recover from the 2018 tariff bout.

“After the tariffs, everything fell off a cliff, and it has not recovered at all,” said Becky Harris, the former president of the American Craft Spirits Association and the founder of Catoctin Creek distillery. “The big producers do recover. They recover why? Because they have massive amounts of money, they can splash back into the market.”

That means some small producers may go under if they cannot find a place to sell their products. Given the industry’s competitiveness, they could also try to increase prices, though that may be tough. The bigger manufacturers and distributors have broad portfolios of products that encompass different types of alcohol from different parts of the world. If they see a price increase on imports to the US for one of their product lines, say, a European wine or Mexican tequila, they may increase prices on American-made products, too, either because they have to or just because they can.

“It’s very likely that under the cover of tariffs, domestic products will also go up in price,” Lodewijks said.

You can’t just roll back a tariff and expect loyalty to return overnight.

While some analysts and industry professionals told me the supply glut could lead to producers dropping their prices in the short term in an attempt to move their booze, Tom Fischer, who runs BourbonBlog.com, said the long-term news may not be as encouraging.

“If distilleries lose sales in Europe due to higher prices from EU tariffs, those same American distilleries may raise domestic prices to offset lost revenue,” he said. “This has been shown to happen in the past with other goods, so we hope that bourbon won’t be the next casualty.”

Trump’s trade war has the potential to hit the industry in more tangential places, too. Riber noted that not much glass manufacturing happens in the US, and he’s starting to hear concerns from bourbon brands about potential tariffs on glass imports and needing to raise prices to make up for it. “At some point, that’s going to have to get passed on,” he said. Wiesel brought up the increased need for warehouse space as bourbon piles up that can’t be sold. “Distilleries are going to have to invest a ton into the actual physical infrastructure to hold onto all of these barrels that they own that are maturing for longer because they don’t have a place to sell them,” he said.

And then there’s Canada, which the president has picked a somewhat confusing fight with. He’s threatened 25% tariffs on imports from Canada, has said he wants to make it the 51st state, and has taken an overall aggressive approach to the country. It’s sparked a sense of patriotism in Canada — along with boycotts on American-made products, including bourbon.

“Canada is just pulling American products. They’re essentially sending notes to their suppliers saying, ‘Hey, no, I don’t have anything against you, but my customers are not buying American right now. They’re angry,’” Harris said. “And they said, ‘Even when the tariffs are gone, this is going to take a while, so don’t hold your breath.’”

Fischer expressed similar concerns about the potential European tariffs. “A 50% tariff risks pricing us out of key markets, and once those consumers shift, they may not come back,” he said. “You can’t just roll back a tariff and expect loyalty to return overnight. This is long-term damage.”

Weaver, from Uncle Nearest, is still optimistic about the future. Bourbon is one of America’s most important exports “in terms of symbolism,” she said, and if you look at bourbon’s history, “we’ve always had these times when people are drinking less of it, but then it comes roaring back.” She gets that the president is doing what he thinks he needs to do to negotiate trade agreements. In the meantime, it might be nice if he gave the industry a bit of a PR boost.

“The best thing he could do is literally say, ‘Hey, America, this is going to be in our best interest,’ because this is clearly what he believes, ‘but while we’re working this out, we really need you to double down on bourbon,’” she said.

Maybe “Buy American” can become “Drink American,” even if the president himself doesn’t drink.

Emily Stewart is a senior correspondent at Business Insider, writing about business and the economy.